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MLB Odds: Blue Jays-Orioles prediction, odds and pick – 10/4/2022 – ClutchPoints

The Toronto Blue Jays (91-69) travel to take on the Baltimore Orioles (82-78) in an American League East matchup. For the visiting Blue Jays, Mitch White (1-6) is projected to get the start on the mound while Mike Baumann (1-3) will get the nod for the home Orioles. The first pitch is slated for 7:05 ET. Below we continue our MLB odds series with a Blue Jays-Orioles prediction and pick.

As mentioned above, Mitch White will get the start on the mound for Toronto. This will be White’s 19th start of the season and 25th appearance overall. In 95 innings of work, White has gone just 1-6 thanks to a 5.21 ERA. He struck out 74 and walked 34. After a solid first half of the season, White has struggled post-trade deadline. In August he held a 7.04 ERA in 5 starts and that climbed to 7.88 in 3 September starts. White got rocked by the Orioles in his lone start against them. In 2 1/3 innings, White surrendered 5 runs on 3 hits and 3 walks. White is coming off a rough outing versus the Yankees that saw him get yanked after just 3 2/3 innings. Prior to being pulled the righty had allowed 3 runs.

On the other side, Mike Baumann will make his fourth start and 13th appearance overall for the Orioles. The twenty-seven-year-old has bounced between Triple-A and the majors this season but has pitched fairly in his big league opportunities. Baumann is 1-3 on the season and holds a 4.34 ERA. He struck out 19 batters in 29 innings of work. In his most recent appearance, Baumann lasted just 4 innings in a loss to Boston. He gave up 2 runs on 6 hits, striking out 2. If there is a silver lining for Orioles fans it’s that Baumann has been much better at home than in away matchups. He holds a respectable 3.93 home ERA.

Here are the Blue Jays-Orioles MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel. 

MLB Odds: Blue Jays-Orioles Odds

Toronto Blue Jays: -1.5 (+152)

Baltimore Orioles: +1.5 (-184)

Over: 7.5 (-102)

Under: 7.5 (-120)

Why The Blue Jays Could Cover The Spread

Toronto is in the midst of a spectacular regular season. Although they finished second in the American League East to the Yankees, the Blue Jays have clinched the top spot in the AL Wild Card race. Their postseason fate is sealed and Toronto will look to prepare for Friday’s postseason action.

Toronto features one of the most star-studded lineups in all of baseball thanks to the three-headed monster of CF George Springer, SS Bo Bichette, and DH Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Each of these guys can fill up the box score with home runs, hits, or steals. Guerrero Jr. was the hero in yesterday’s clinching win. His 32nd home run of the season helped propel Toronto to victory as it often has this season. Vladdy Jr. has terrorized Baltimore all season. In 72 at-bats against the Orioles, the twenty-three-year-old has gone 23-72. He hit 6 home runs and drove in 12 runners against Baltimore. His normal play alone would be a difference maker but Guerrero’s track record against Baltimore is something to keep in mind when making a Blue Jays-Orioles prediction.

Why The Orioles Could Cover The Spread

While Baltimore is eliminated from playoff contention, they’ve still managed to put together a strong season. Although they finished fourth in the AL East, the Orioles will finish over .500 despite a brutal division. The Orioles have been the definition of a solid team on both sides of the diamond. Despite being 20th in runs scored and 16th in runs allowed, Baltimore was excellent in tight games. However, they’ve slowed down in recent weeks. After a stellar August, the Orioles sputtered in September – winning just 13 of 28 games.

The offense has largely been the issue in recent games as Baltimore has gone just 3-7 in their last 10 games. With their season finished, Orioles fans have taken solace in the play of top prospect Adley Rutschman. In his rookie season, the catcher batted .256. In his last 7 games, Rutschman went 6-22. Of those 6 hits, 3 were doubles and 1 cleared the fence for a home run.  For the season, Rutschman has hit just 13 home runs and driven in 42 runs. He’s been much better at home, though, which is worth keeping in mind when making a Blue Jays-Orioles prediction. In 180 home at-bats, the twenty-four-year-old hit .278 compared to .238 in away matchups. He’s been particularly effective against Toronto this season. Rutschman has a .479 on-base percentage against the Blue Jays and has homered 4 times in 57 at-bats.

Final Blue Jays-Orioles Prediction & Pick

The Blue Jays clinched the top wild card spot yesterday so there isn’t much incentive for them to win tonight. While the Orioles are eliminated from playoff contention, I’ll take the runs in a game neither team needs to win.

Final Blue Jays-Orioles Prediction & Pick: Baltimore Orioles +1.5 (-184)

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