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Partner Content | Blue Jays vs. Rangers picks and odds: Toronto’s bullpen can guide team to a sweep – Welland Tribune

The Blue Jays' bullpen has been one of the best in baseball this month, with a 2.97 ERA and 2.20 FIP.

The Blue Jays' bullpen has been one of the best in baseball this month, with a 2.97 ERA and 2.20 FIP.

By Jordan HorrobinNorthStar Bets

Sun., Sept. 11, 20223 min. read

The Toronto Blue Jays will aim to wrap up a near-perfect road trip with a sweep of the Texas Rangers on Sunday afternoon at Globe Life Field.

The pregame narrative: With an 8-1 record on this three-city road trip so far, life is already pretty good for Toronto. But sweeping Martin Perez and the Rangers today would make it an even happier flight home.

Check out our Blue Jays vs. Rangers picks for September 11.

Odds as of 9:57 a.m. on 09/11/2022.

Blue Jays vs. Rangers picks

Best bet: Blue Jays ML (-120)

For now, and maybe for the final few weeks of the season, the Blue Jays are ditching the customary five-starter rotation. They have four trustworthy starters, plus a bullpen that has shown in recent weeks it can handle a hefty workload.

So on Sunday, we’ll see Trevor Richards open for the second consecutive rotation turn. The remainder of a fairly well-rested bullpen will take it from there, with only Tim Mayza and Adam Cimber having pitched on consecutive days to start this series.

As is the very essence of a bullpen, Toronto’s relief corps hasn’t always been sharp in 2022. But its season-long ranks in ERA (3.71, 12th in MLB) and K/9 (8.91, 16th) have been looking up this month.

Statistic Value (in Sept.) MLB rank (in Sept.)
ERA 2.97 8th
FIP 2.20 2nd
K/9 10.68 6th
fWAR 1.0 1st

The pitching matchup appears to favour Perez (10-6, 2.82 ERA) and the Rangers. But based on how the Blue Jays’ relievers have fared this month, the gap may not be as wide as you think.

Also, we certainly have more faith in Toronto’s offence compared to Texas, and the Blue Jays’ history against Perez offers one more reason to make this pick.

Key stat: Toronto’s current roster has a .312 batting average and a .484 slugging percentage in 103 plate appearances against Perez, per Baseball Savant.

Quick picks

Perez under 4.5 Ks (-108): When Perez faced the Blue Jays in June last year, he didn’t strike anybody out in a disastrous start (1.1 innings, five runs). The former Red Sox lefty has seen the Blue Jays many times, and his 14.2% K-rate against the current lineup makes him well worth a fade on this line.

Toronto also has the second-lowest K-rate in the majors against lefties this season (18.5%).

Most hits – Blue Jays (-109): While the Blue Jays are facing a familiar foe, the Rangers will likely see a long line of relievers they know little about. It’ll be tougher for Texas to establish a rhythm on offence, which should help the Blue Jays in this market.

Plus, Toronto has a .312 BA against Perez, as previously mentioned. And the Jays’ season-long batting average (.262, second in MLB) is far better than the Rangers (.242, 16th).

JH

Jordan Horrobin writes about sports betting for NorthStar Bets. NorthStar Bets is owned by NordStar Capital, which also owns Torstar, the Star’s parent company. Follow him on Twitter: @JordanHorrobin

Disclaimer This content was produced as part of a partnership and therefore it may not meet the standards of impartial or independent journalism.